GCC retail sales tipped to reach US$386.9 billion by 2030

Mall of the Emirates interior — Factors supporting the growth include a rising population and increasing spending power. (Source: Bigstock)

By Sean Cao September 17, 2026

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Retail sales in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to reach US$386.9 billion by 2030, according to the latest report from Alpen Capital.

Alpen’s 10th GCC Retail Industry report projects retail sales in the region to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3 per cent during 2025-30, with the UAE expected to record the highest CAGR of 3.6 per cent.

Factors supporting the growth include a rising population, increasing spending power and ambitious diversification strategies. The expansion of e-commerce and omni-channel models, as well as the increasing presence of international and domestic brands, also play a role.

“Though the current geopolitical situation is weighing on industry dynamics, we expect retail sales to regain momentum and maintain a steady growth trajectory going forward,” said TM Lakshmanan, CEO of Alpen Capital.

According to the data, the UAE is expected to witness the highest CAGR of 3.6 per cent during the forecast period, followed by Saudi Arabia with 3.2 per cent. This growth will be underpinned by expanding populations and well-developed infrastructure, which make them attractive shopping destinations.

Qatar and Kuwait follow next in terms of market size and are forecasted to deliver CAGRs of 3.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively,

Non-food retail sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.7 per cent, while food retail sales at 4.1 per cent between 2025 and 2030. Airport duty-free sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.8 per cent, driven by the anticipated rise in passenger traffic.

The report noted that the GCC’s exposure to global macroeconomic headwinds could weigh on consumer sentiment and place the retail industry under pressure. The region’s heavy reliance on food imports could also exacerbate inflationary pressures.

As competition intensifies across the region, retailers are responding with aggressive promotional strategies to gain market share, which is supporting top-line growth but placing pressure on profit margins, the report added.